Business and Product Launch
A new business, product or business line. We test the assumptions in the right order: first what is cheap to test and would wipe out everything else if it doesn't hold.
Common requests:There is an idea for a new line of business, There are first sales, Money goes into development faster than demand is confirmed
Services in this area
1 service
What people come with
Does this sound familiar?
- There is an idea for a new line of business, and it's unclear how to test it cheaply.Situation 01A launch is a sequence of tests.
- The product has been in development for a long time and hasn't met the market yet.Situation 02A launch is a sequence of tests.
- There are first sales, but it's unclear whether they will repeat.Situation 03A launch is a sequence of tests.
- Money goes into development faster than demand is confirmed.Situation 04A launch is a sequence of tests.
The core idea of this area
A launch is a sequence of tests.
The self-assessment for this area checks whether the riskiest assumption has been named, whether demand has been confirmed with money and whether a stopping point has been set in advance.
- 01Unit economics
- 02Differentiation
- 03Cash cycle
- 04Repeatable sales
- 05Management data
How we see it
Every launch rests on four assumptions: the problem exists and hurts; our solution addresses it; the economics add up; it scales. They need to be tested strictly in that order, from cheap to expensive.
The most common mistake is starting with the fourth: building infrastructure for a scale not confirmed by even one deal.
When this area won't help
- We don't confirm demand with surveys about intentions. Only a payment or a refusal for a specific reason counts as confirmation.
- We don't build a full product before the economics of one deal have been tested.
- We don't launch something that has no owner inside the company.
Questions
What counts as confirmed demand?
A payment, or a refusal for a specific reason. Interest, "that would be great" and a filled-in form are politeness, not data.
How simple should the first version be?
Simple enough to serve the first customer by any means, including by hand. The purpose of the first deal is to learn the real cycle and the real objections.
How do we avoid killing an idea too early?
Agree in advance what is tested at each step and what result counts as failure. Otherwise the decision is made out of fatigue.
When should we invest in infrastructure?
After five deals through a minimal setup, when the real cost of a customer and the margin are known.
Related articles and case analyses
Launch: a sequence of cheap tests
A new venture fails not because the idea was bad, but because an expensive test was run before a cheap one.
Which assumption will kill the project if it turns out to be wrong?
Test it first. The first meeting is free.