1Assumptions
Four key ones: the problem exists, the solution addresses it, the economics add up, it scales. Which is the riskiest.
Business Plan
A document for making decisions. A business plan is valuable for how honestly it links the hypothesis to tests, economics and a walk-away point. Its length doesn't matter.
Sound familiar?There's an idea, but the resources and risks haven't been calculated, The team, a partner or an investor needs a plan, and you'll have to defend it with numbers, The numbers in the plan live separately from how the work will actually be organized
Business and Product Launch
How we work
1
2Tests
What has already been confirmed by fact and what is only assumed.
3Operating model and finances
How the work will be organized, and three money scenarios.
4Risks and walk-away point
At what result the project stops, by budget and by deadline.
Sound familiar?
- There's an idea, but the resources and risks haven't been calculated.
- The team, a partner or an investor needs a plan, and you'll have to defend it with numbers.
- The numbers in the plan live separately from how the work will actually be organized.
What usually lies behind it
A typical business plan is built from forecasts: a market of such-and-such size, a share of so much. A plan like that tests nothing. We build it from the results of low-cost tests: conversations about customers' past behavior, the first deal, the first five deals.
What you get
A business plan you can use as a working document.
A list of assumptions with the test status of each.
Money scenarios and a walk-away point.
The cost of waiting
If nothing changes
- 01
The project will start spending resources without stop criteria.
- 02
Financial expectations will remain unconfirmed.
- 03
The team will understand the launch sequence differently.
When you don't need this service
- First sales are already coming in, and the task is to scale them. Then scaling.
- You need a document for formality's sake that no one will use. We don't write those.
How to tell it worked
Tested assumptions
how many of the four are confirmed by fact.
Walk-away point
whether a budget and deadline are set.
Usage
whether the plan is updated with test results.
Questions
Is a business plan for an investor different?
An investor needs the same plan: with tested assumptions and honest scenarios. They'll check them anyway.
Can we start without a plan?
You can start with tests. The plan becomes more useful once their results are in it.
How long does it take?
It depends on how many tests have already been done. If none, we start with them.
Related
Services: Financial Model · Business Positioning · Strategic Planning Materials: Launch: a sequence of cheap tests · Unit economics for owners: seven numbers
Related to this service
Public company case analysis
LEGO
In 2004 LEGO lost 1.9 billion Danish kroner, and in 2005 it made money again. An analysis of how an honest audit showed where the company was losing money.
