1We define the fork
Which decision is being made, by when, and what happens if it's postponed.
Strategic Consulting
A decision for a difficult fork in the road. When a major investment, a new line of business or a change of model is at stake, and nobody inside the company can check the hypothesis independently.
Sound familiar?A year of work depends on one decision, and the picture is incomplete, Several options look equally sensible, There's nobody on the team who can calmly say "this is a mistake"
Strategy and Consulting
How we work
1
2We test the assumptions
We gather facts and separate what's confirmed from what's hoped for.
3We calculate the options
The economics, operational consequences and risks of each, including rejecting them all.
4We give a recommendation
A choice with its rationale, the conditions under which it changes, and a plan for the first actions.
Sound familiar?
- A year of work depends on one decision, and the picture is incomplete.
- Several options look equally sensible.
- There's nobody on the team who can calmly say "this is a mistake".
What usually lies behind it
Inside a company it's hard to test a decision in which everyone has their own interest. An outside check is needed not because outsiders are smarter, but because they lose nothing from an uncomfortable conclusion.
What you get
A written recommendation with calculations and named risks.
A list of assumptions worth testing before any irreversible steps.
Criteria that will show within a quarter whether the decision was right.
The cost of waiting
If nothing changes
- 01
The company may invest in an untested hypothesis.
- 02
Disagreements will be disguised as inaction.
- 03
The cost of changing course will rise every month.
When you don't need this service
- There's no fork, just a general feeling that things are going wrong. Then you need owner advisory or the EMET Diagnostic.
- The decision has already been made, and you need support. We'll say plainly if the data doesn't back it up.
How to tell it worked
Tested assumptions
how many key assumptions were tested before the decision.
Named risks
whether each risk has an owner and a plan.
Decision speed
how much time passed from the fork to the choice.
Questions
How long does it take?
It depends on the fork: from a few weeks if the data exists to a few months if hypotheses need to be tested in the market.
Do you make the decision for us?
No. The owner makes the decision. We make sure it's made on facts and with a clear price.
What if we disagree with the recommendation?
That's fine. What matters is that the disagreement is based on calculation.
Related
Services: Owner Advisory · Business Model Review · Financial Model Materials: Strategy as a list of refusals · When the model stops working
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One salesperson looked for customers, negotiated and handled the deal. An analysis of the model that split this work across four roles.
